Despite International Research, Thorium Fluctuations Unlikely To Threaten U.S. Nuclear Power Supply Over Next 3 To 5 Years

Executive Summary:
It is unlikely that thorium will threaten United States national security by way of critical infrastructure over the next three to five years. Key factors include lack of advantages over uranium nuclear power, minimal domestic demand, and the abundant thorium reserves in the U.S.

Discussion:

Countries such as India and China are
conducting research with molten salt
reactors, technology the US developed
over 40 years ago.

Thorium nuclear power is not significantly better than uranium power. Solid thorium reactors are comparable to uranium reactors in terms of waste, vulnerability, and efficiency. Numerous countries are currently conducting research on molten salt reactors using thorium, but these reactors lack real-world testing and are not commercially ready. Although the molten salt method poses advantages over traditional systems, the U.S. has discarded it. Experts say that proponents overstate the advantages, suggesting a switch to thorium nuclear power is not economically viable.

Thorium currently is of limited value to the U.S.  In 2009, the U.S. spent USD 150,000 on thorium imports, suggesting there is little interest in using the mineral. Thorium nuclear reactors create no weapons-grade byproducts, and thorium is less versatile than uranium. 

Experts estimate that the U.S. holds 8 percent of the world’s total thorium reserves. The U.S. has two high-grade thorium resources in the west. More than ten states also have reserves of a lower grade content of thorium. These deposits are highly exploitable if needed and cover 13 separate regions of the country.

Analytic Confidence:
Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from medium to high. Sources could be corroborated. Analysts were of low expertise and worked as a team of two. The subject is highly complex. Time available for the task was adequate.

Methods And Processes:
Analysts communicated via Gmail and Google Docs to share independently collected sources, information, ideas, and to create the document. Analysts continued to develop and refine the document  as they found more information.

With Google Docs, it was extremely easy to seamlessly alter the document, improving it and shaping it as the analysts proceeded in research. As analysts discovered further information, analysts were forced to reassess the original scope. The Google Docs chat and comment functions were of great use in facilitating easier communication.

Authors:
Sara Marinello (email - Google+)
Laura Suprock (email - Google+)

India To Increase Rare-Earth Mineral Production

India is estimated to have the third largest rare-earth mineral
reserves in the world, but current does very little production.

Wall Street Journal (NEW DELHI) -- Recognizing economic opportunity resulting from China allegedly restricting rare-earth exports, India announced their intentions to boost their exports of rare earth minerals in order to meet global demand. Rare Earth Ltd., owned by the Indian government, is building a new rare-earth processing plant as preparation for increased output in the state of Orissa with operations expected to begin in September. Additionally, the government is seeking to mine rare earth from the seabed off the southern coast of the country in an industrial scale. It is estimated that India has 3.1 million metric tons of rare-earth reserves. Despite these efforts, concerns over corruption and red tape in the Indian mining industry, investments may be hindered. The United States, Malaysia, and Australia also recently announced plans to increase rare-earth mining efforts. Due to the increase in prices globally, nations are searching for additional places to source these minerals from in order to offset rising costs. Source: India Bets on Rare-Earth Minerals (Reliability: Medium)

Comment: As the Sino-India relationship becomes more complicated, the decision to increase rare-earth mineral output by India is likely strategic, as it will decrease their dependency on China for rare-earth while improving their overall economic standing.

India Makes Rare Earthy Pitch To Rival China

Arial image of Mountain Pass RE mine in California.
The mine was recently reopened after closing in 2002.

NEW DELHI (DNA) -- India might emerge as one of the countries that can challenge China’s rare earths (REs) hegemony. China overviews 97% of RE production; however, US Geological Survey estimates that China has half of the world’s reserves at 55 million tons (MTs). Forecasts show that the currently estimated world consumption of 136,000 tons/year is likely to grow to 185,000 tons/year by 2015. Based on current estimates, the US has 12% (13MTs) of global reserves, Australia (1.6 MTs), and Commonwealth of Independent States (19 MTs). Latest Indian government statistics show that India may have 9% (10.7MTs) of global RE reserves. India used to be the world’s leading RE producer in the 1950s, followed by the US through the 1960s and 1980s. Source:  DNA special: India makers rare earthy pitch to rival China (Reliability: Medium)

Comment: As a consequence of Chinese export restrictions on REs, some countries are likely to reopen their RE mines, which were closed down because of low-cost Chinese production. This will results in higher costs compared to Chinese domestic production; however, foreign companies do not have to worry about the theft of their trade secrets in China.